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Reprinted: The megatrend of the organic chemical market dropped in October
In October, the domestic organic chemical market showed a trend of peaking and the overall organic chemical index dropped significantly. Zhuochuang Information Organic Chemical Index was 1021.81 points at the beginning of the month and 993.2 points on October 25, down 2.8% from the beginning of the month.
Specifically, the domestic pure benzene market continued its downward consolidation in October, with most negative external influences. The decline in international crude oil has affected the atmosphere, and the simultaneous fall in the price of pure benzene has put pressure on the domestic market. Although the domestic market has a certain amount of buying gas to support the market and limit the decline, it is still unable to change the overall weak momentum of upstream and downstream. The two benzene market went against the trend. In October, affected by the large-scale reduction of export activities by petrochemical companies, the overall supply of toluene market was relatively tight. At the same time, the continuous devaluation of the RMB also caused a significant contraction in imports to Hong Kong. As the demand for downstream procurement after the National Day holiday and the large-scale enquiries of some fine chemicals downstream pushed, the supply-demand relationship in the market became extremely tight, and the price level saw a rare sharp rise; the overall export of domestic xylene production companies is still relatively limited. Although the downstream demand has shrunk after the National Day holiday, the import volume has continued to decrease due to the impact of the devaluation of the RMB, which has led to a tight domestic supply and demand relationship. In addition, the overall domestic demand for PX has remained relatively good, and the market Has been in a state of high sideways.
In terms of propylene, this month was impacted by a large number of low-cost Northeast sources. Long-term imbalances in production and sales at Shandong refinery led to increased inventory pressure. The refinery substantially allowed profits to be stored in warehouses. The price center of propylene continued to move downward. At present, refinery shipments are under pressure, downstream factories have ample propylene inventory, and the powder market is not changing. The propylene market price still has some room to explore; the National Day holiday is over, and the mid-to-downstream phased replenishment has led to a slight rise in the domestic methanol market. Entering the consumption of inventory or purchasing on demand, the slowdown of the market shipment rhythm, coupled with the increase in the start of production in the main producing areas, the pressure of enterprise shipments gradually increased, resulting in a narrow decline in transaction prices; in October, corn alcohol production increased, new grain Going public, the factory is more enthusiastic about production. The cassava alcohol continued to lose money, the factory's low startup rate continued, and the price of loose and fell was affected by the competition of corn alcohol.
Macro aspect: The overall price of oil this month showed a unilateral downward trend. With the International Monetary Fund lowering its global economic growth forecast and OPEC and IEA lowering its global oil demand forecasts, international oil prices have fallen to a high level. At the same time, the daily output growth of OPEC and Russia ’s crude oil in September, coupled with the decline in major global stock markets, also weighed on the crude oil market, and oil prices fell sharply this month. In the past three weeks, WTI has fallen by more than 11% from a nearly four-year high and Brent has fallen by more than 10%. Looking at next month, Iran's sanctions are facing a deadline, making the oil market very risky and uncertain. Even if the sanctions are in line with market expectations, most of Iran's supply losses will be offset by increased production in Saudi Arabia and other countries. And it does not rule out that the slowdown in economic growth has once again triggered global stock market declines, thus putting pressure on the oil market. Therefore, the downside risks to oil prices remain high next month.
Downstream market: In terms of general plastics, weaker demand coupled with turmoil in the financial market, the ABS market turbulence this month fell, and prices fell significantly. After the National Day holiday, the upstream raw material market has fallen sharply and the systemic risks in the financial market have not been relieved. The panic in the ABS market has spread and low-price offers are frequent. As the three raw materials continue to fall, the apparent cost of ABS has fallen back, and manufacturers' operating space has expanded. However, there is no hope of recovery on the demand side, and the spot circulation is relatively excessive. It is expected that the trend of consolidation and consolidation in the ABS market is expected to continue; in terms of chemical fiber products, the polyester filament market this month fell volatile. At present, the mainstream price of polyester filament FDY150D / 96F market is around 10400-10500, down 700 yuan / ton or 6.3% from the end of last month. The global stock market plunged, causing the risk aversion of funds to rise, and US crude oil fell to the $ 70 / barrel mark. At the same time, the price of raw materials PTA and MEG dropped, the production cost platform for polyester declined, the terminal textile market was tepid, and the production and sales data of polyester factories continued to weaken, which led to the decline in the market price of polyester filaments. In the short term, the market price of polyester filament may continue its weak downward trend. At the same time, the terminal textile order situation did not show obvious improvement, and the polyester filament industry still faced destocking pressure.
The favorable support of the pure benzene market in November is not very obvious, but the decline is limited at a low level, and the overall shocks wait and see forward. The two benzene markets are expected to face a peak correction after the high level consolidation, but the overall decline is limited. In the later period, as the supply of Northeast China shrinks and some downstream plants resume production, the propylene market is expected to stop falling and rebound. It is expected that the market price of propylene will pick up in November and the center of gravity of the price will be lower than in October. The regional supply of methanol is expected to decrease in the later period, but the downstream industry is facing greater cost pressure. In November, the domestic methanol market was long and short. As for ethanol, there is a big gap between the current profit level and the enthusiasm of the Northeast to start up. Industry players are worried that prices may still be weak in November.