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Market expects OPEC to cut output, international oil prices rebound

Market expects OPEC to cut output, international oil prices rebound

2018/12/04
Recently, international oil prices got on a roller coaster. After the plunge on Tuesday (November 20), investors generally expected that the OPEC meeting in Vienna in early December would make a decision to reduce production. On Wednesday (November 21), a rebound and increase .
As of Wednesday's close, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange in January 2019 rose by $ 1.20 to close at $ 54.63 per barrel, an increase of 2.25%. The price of London Brent crude oil delivered in January 2019 rose by 0.95 US dollars to close at 63.48 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.52%.
International oil prices plunged on Tuesday
On Tuesday, the price of light crude oil futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in January 2019 fell by $ 3.77 to close at $ 53.43 per barrel, a drop of 6.59%. The price of London Brent crude for January 2019 delivery fell by $ 4.26 to close at $ 62.53 per barrel, a drop of 6.38%.
Earlier Tuesday, US President Trump issued a statement on Saudi Arabia's position, reiterating his support for the Saudi government on the killing of Saudi journalist Kashuji. At the same time, Trump said: "Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producer after the United States. They have worked closely with us and have actively responded to my call for a reasonable level of oil prices. If the cooperation with Saudi Arabia is suspended, oil prices will Break the roof. And I've been trying to lower the price of oil. "
CNBC reports that there are still about two weeks before the OPEC meeting, when member states will reach a decision on whether to reduce production, but Trump's intervention adds uncertainty to OPEC's final decision.
On Monday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia and OPEC members will continue to observe the international oil market in the next few weeks before making related decisions.
It is worth mentioning that previously, Saudi Arabia and its allies have stated that they are considering reducing production by 1 million to 1.4 million barrels per day to prevent excessive decline in oil prices.
The director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fez Birroll called on important oil-producing countries to act on "common sense" at the OPEC policy meeting in December this year.
Market fears oversupply
The British "Financial Times" reported that the market is generally worried about global oil oversupply and investor panic spread.
Earlier on Tuesday, Fez Birroll warned: "Because of a fragile global economy and volatile geopolitics, we are entering an unprecedented stage of uncertainty in the oil market." "The global economy is still going through very difficult times. The remaining capacity is very thin and this environment is becoming more dangerous. "
"Now we can clearly see that the market is concerned about the slowdown in global economic growth," said Jacques Young, head of global market analysis at FTSE Russell.
On Tuesday, the OPEC monthly report lowered its forecast for growth in crude oil demand for the fourth consecutive year: "It is expected that crude oil demand will increase by 1.29 million barrels per day next year."
Bloomberg Research analyst Ziad? Daoud believes that the key reason for the continuous decline in oil prices is the level of supply and demand. From the high point on October 3, Brent oil prices have fallen more than $ 20 in this wave of declines. Daoud believes that $ 18, or 85%, is due to weak demand, and the other 15% is due to weak demand. Due to supply factors.
However, Jeffrey Curry, chief commodity strategist at Goldman Sachs, used the previous plunge as an example to show that last week's "12 consecutive losses" was purely driven by technical factors, not due to the deterioration of fundamentals.
Major oil producing countries increase production
In addition to the deterioration of demand prospects and other factors, the increase in production of major oil-producing countries such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia is also an important driver of the recent sharp decline in oil prices.
In the past few months, under repeated pressure from the United States, OPEC and Russia once changed their joint production reduction strategy to increase the output of crude oil supply gaps left to compensate for sanctions against Iran. "Daily Economic News" reporter learned that in recent months, the average daily output of Saudi Arabia has approached historical highs for several times. Russia's output once reached 11.5 million barrels per day, an average increase of 450,000 barrels per day from May. In early November, EIA predicted that due to the surge in shale oil production, U.S. crude oil production will have the largest increase in history this year and will break through the 12 million barrels per day mark next year.
The OPEC monthly report released on Tuesday showed that Russia ’s output increased by 50,000 barrels / day in October this year, and the total output of OPEC member countries increased by 127,000 barrels / day.
Falling oil prices weighed on energy stocks, and technology stocks continued to lose blood. On Tuesday, the S & P 500 Index closed down 1.82% to 2641.89 points, the lowest closing price since October 29; the Dow closed down 551.80 points, or 2.21%, to 24465.64 points. The Nasdaq closed down 1.70% to 6908.82 points.

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